反思很多一二级市场投资乱象

一年一度的伯克希尔哈撒韦股东大会5月份马上就要在奥马哈小镇召开了，国内已经活生生地把去奥马哈参会做成了一个旅游项目，但发完朋友圈之后，又能有几个人真正去领悟巴菲特投资的精髓？付诸实践的人估计更是寥寥无几。

最近读了一本书叫University of Berkshire Hathaway，直译就是《伯克希尔大学》，是作者Daniel Pecaut和Corey Wrenn过去30年参加伯克希尔股东年会的笔记。书里面记录了大量巴菲特和芒格的语录，流传度完全不如那些鸡汤语句，但句句珠玑。我又从这本笔记里翻译了一些精华，跟大家分享，希望有助于我们反思很多一二级市场投资乱象，帮助我们更好地去做长线投资。

PS. 英文好的同学还是直接读原文，我的翻译也做不到原汁原味。

关于投资的感悟

We’ve had a very low opinion of our abilities.

我们认为我们的能力很一般。

旁注：国内很多普通投资人觉得自己很厉害。

The worst mistakes are made from the nicest graphs and what is really needed is enlightened common sense.

最糟糕的错误往往从最漂亮的图表得来，但其实真正需要的只是启发性的常识。

旁注：经常有人做个很漂亮的PPT，惊艳的图表，最后要么骗别人、要么把自己绕进去了。但却忽视了真相往往只是常识的一个组合。

Knowing your limitations and the limitations of your information seems to be the key.

彻底了解自己的局限和自己所获取信息的局限，这看起来是投资的关键。

旁注：很多人既不了解自己知道什么，更不了解自己不知道什么。

It’s hard enough to understand the culture you’ve been raised in, much less someone else’s.

想深入了解自己本土的文化已经够难了，更别说别人的了。

旁注：现在有不少人去别的国家创业和投资，我觉得如果不是想做时间差的套利，而是做一些跟当地文化息息相关的领域，须谨慎。

We’d buy great businesses with excellent management at a fair to bargain price and leave them alone.

我们喜欢以一个公平、不错的价格去买已经有优秀管理团队的伟大生意，之后让其独立发展。

旁注：阿斗是永远扶不起的，投资人也几乎不可能扭转一家公司的局面。永远都只投可以自己解决自己问题的公司，融不到钱也要继续想办法前进的创始人。

For the man with a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.

对一个拿着锤子的人来说，每个问题看起来都像一枚钉子。

Buffett said that they know how to evaluate businesses. They do not know how to predict market swings. “It is crazy to give up something you know for something you do not.”

巴菲特说他们知道如何去衡量一个生意，但不知道如何预测市场的波动。“为了一些你不知道的事情而放弃你所知道的事情，这太疯狂了！”

旁注：不要尝试去预测市场，专注于如何去衡量目标公司的内在价值。

To think about what will happen versus when is a far more efficient way to behave.

去思考将会发生什么比什么时候会发生要有效率得多。

Diversification makes no sense for someone who knows what they are doing.

分散投资对于知道自己到底在投什么的人来说是没有任何意义的。

Three wonderful businesses is more than you need in this life and would serve you much better than 100 average businesses.

一辈子能投到3家很棒的公司比投100家一般的公司要强很多。

旁注：巴菲特其实是非常激进的，他敢于在自己有把握的公司上下重注。如果用德州扑克的玩家类型去评价巴菲特，他肯定是一个“紧凶型”玩家。

You can pay too much even for a wonderful business and that the overpayment risk is currently quite high. The risk is time versus loss of principal. If you overpay, it will take time for the business value to catch up to the price paid.

你时常会买贵，甚至就一家很棒的公司而言，为其付太多溢价也是风险很高的一件事情。这种风险就是时间 vs. 本金损失。如果你买贵了，这家公司就需要花很多时间发展去追上你所付的价格。

旁注：这种事情在国内的一二级市场基本上是天天发生，大家更倾向于去追逐一家公司的市场价值，并不在乎付出远高于其内在价值的价格，投机性很强地去期待下一个接盘侠出现。

Volatility is a huge plus to real investors.

波动对于真正的价值投资者来说是一个附加好处。

Life is a whole series of opportunity costs. Munger asserted that all intelligent people base decisions on opportunity costs.

人生就是由一系列的机会成本组成。芒格断言所有有智慧的人都是基于机会成本去做决策的。

Find people with brains, energy and integrity, and you can own the world.

找到有头脑、有能量和正直的管理者，把钱投给他们，你就可以拥有全世界

There is no master plan. They will just keep allocating capital as rationally as they can.

伯克希尔没有什么绝招，就是会一直坚持尽可能理性地去分配资金。

Munger noted many corporations have large M&A departments spending huge amounts of time to do huge amounts of due diligence. Yet at least two-thirds of acquisitions are duds. In contrast, Munger noted that Berkshire has done many great deals with no such time spent. They wait for the no-brainer, the fat pitch.

芒格 提到很多大公司有巨大的投资并购部门，花很多钱和时间去做尽职调查。但至少有2/3所做的并购都挂了。相反，伯克希尔花了不多的时间做了不少很好的投资。因为他们没有投资压力，他们只等那些想都不用想的，垂手可得的好机会来了，才考虑出手。

There’s seldom one cockroach in the kitchen.

厨房里肯定不会只有一只蟑螂。

Buffett and Munger agreed that their biggest mistakes have been errors of omission rather than commission.

巴菲特和芒格都同意，他们犯过的最大的错误其实是错过大机会，比那些投错的错误要大多了。

If you focus on the price, you are really saying that you believe the market knows more than you do. If you think of the value of the business instead of the price, you will sleep better.

如果你只关注价格，那就说明你觉得市场比你懂得多。如果你能去思考企业的内在价值，你会睡得更好。

They suggested that investing is more like parimutuel betting, where you need only be right a few times as long as you don’t take a big loss.

投资就像赛马中的同注分彩（赢家分享所有资金池），你只需要对几次即可赚大钱，只要你每次错的时候输的都不多。

Most men would rather die than think. Many do.

很多人宁可去死也不愿意去思考。真的很多人。

Buffett summed up with regard to financial calamities: (1) don’t let it wipe you out, and (2) be prepared to take advantage.

巴菲特关于如何应对金融灾难/危机总结了两点：1.不要被洗出去 2.准备好趁机占便宜。

Buffett summed up that speculative markets become like Cinderella at the ball. At midnight, they will turn to pumpkins and mice. Each player wants one more glass of champagne, one more dance, and then they’ll get out in time. But there are no clocks on the wall.

巴菲特说投机市场很像灰姑娘的舞会。一到午夜时分，大家将会纷纷变回南瓜和老鼠。因此每一个玩家都想再喝一杯香槟，再跳一支舞，然后就赶在晚上12点前溜走。但问题来了，墙上没有钟。

In 1790, there were four million people in America, 290 million in China and 100 million in Europe. Yet 215 years later, America has 30% of the world’s GDP.

1790年，美国仅有400万人口，中国有2.9亿，欧洲有1亿。但215年后，美国创造了全世界30%的GDP。

旁注：巴菲特把国家也看成是一个公司，这是为什么当时他赌美国的原因。

“Any calls you get on Sunday, you’re going to make money.” Those rare calls are the best since they are inevitably from seriously distressed sellers.

“你在周日接到的任何电话，都可能让你赚大钱” 这些电话可能是最好的交易，因为它们往往是那些已经走投无路的卖家打过来的。

旁注：哈哈，这个国内可能有点不一样，因为周日接到的可能是各种营销电话...

The most important job of the board is to pick the right CEO.

董事会最重要的工作是挑选正确的CEO。

He claimed that his best ideas haven’t done better than others’ best ideas, but he’s lost less on his worst ideas.

巴菲特认为他最好的投资不见得比别人的最好投资好，但他在自己最坏的那些投资上比绝大部分人损失都更少。

“Envy is the worst of the seven deadly sins. It’s the only one that makes you feel worse, and the other party feels nothing.

嫉妒是七宗罪里面最最差劲的。它是唯一一个让你感觉极差，但对方完全无感的一宗罪。

The market is there to serve you, not influence you.

市场是为你服务的，不要被它所影响。

In thinking about markets, it is important to remember that markets are there to serve you, not instruct you. The key here is emotional stability, to have an inner peace about your decisions. It is important to think for yourself and to make good decisions over time.  It is simple, but not easy.

关于市场的思考，最重要是记住它是服务于你的，而不是来对你指手画脚的。这里的关键是稳定的情绪，要对你的决策达到一个内心的平静。应该专注于自己的利益和如何长期去做正确决策。这听起来很简单，但做起来不容易。

Each business has its own key measures of building business value. What Buffett wants to pay for is widening the moat.

每一个生意都有自己不断建立商业价值的关键衡量标准，巴菲特想要的就是投钱去不断扩大这个生意的护城河。

Maintain low expectations – that is the key to happiness.

维持低预期是通往幸福的关键。

That’s the fundamental algorithm of life – REPEAT WHAT WORKS.

人生最最基础的算法：不断重复正确的操作。

We will always have bubbles because it is the nature of capitalism to go to excess.

我们会一直与泡沫共舞，因为这正是资本主义不断创造剩余价值的本质。

Berkshire would be ready and willing to act if some economic turbulence creates an opportunity.

伯克希尔会一直准备好，并且非常愿意去抓那些由于经济重大动荡所产生的机会。

Clearly capital allocation will need to be the foremost talent.

非常清晰的资金分配能力将是（伯克希尔董事会挑选巴菲特继任者时）最看重的才能。

本文英文部分摘抄自《University of Berkshire Hathaway》

原书作者：Daniel Pecaut，Corey Wrenn

译者：毛圣博

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